You’ve heard a lot about inflation, shrinkflation, and greedflation (see Two Truths and a Lie below).
But what’s qualideflation? You won't find it in the dictionary or on Wiki – at least not yet – because it’s a term I invented to describe the decline in the quality of food at the same (or higher) price.
While eating a power lunch – a Chicken Bake at Costco – I noticed in the meat something that just doesn’t feel right. Whether it’s gristle, sinew, a fat globule, or something else, my mouth knows when it hits something that doesn’t taste – or feel – like it should. And it sends a message to my brain to spit it out… in the classiest way possible, of course. Without getting too detailed, this can involve:
A napkin (paper, not cloth).
An empty or near-empty cup (not a glass).
A trip to the restroom (awkward if you’ve already been).
I realize this could make me an unpopular lunch date. But it’s not just chicken and not just at Costco. For at least the dozenth time in the last year, I’ve experienced this in various meat products, whether bought at a foodservice location or in the grocery store:
Meatballs.
Cheese steak meat, which here in the Philadelphia area is a food staple more fundamental than bread, milk, and eggs.
Sushi. As recently as this weekend, part of the spicy salmon roll my daughter and I ordered was sinewy and stringy; like fishy bubble gum.
In my first job as Brand Manager at Campbell’s, I marveled at the talents of my food science colleagues, the R&D people in the white coats who helped develop and refine the taste of new soups before we launched them to the marketplace. From them I remember first hearing the term mouthfeel, the texture and physical feeling you get from what you eat. It’s rarely a problem, until lately.
Setting aside qualideflation for the time being, let’s take stock of the other “-flations:”
Two Truths and a Lie
Inflation is objective and quantifiable. While the rate of inflation has decelerated to a more normal 2.6% in 2024, the cumulative effect of price increases that peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 means that prices are, on average, ~20% higher than they were in 2020, and very few workers’ wages have risen by enough to offset that. CBS News Moneywatch reported the following price hikes on meat in 2024 vs. 2020:
Ground beef is +39%.
Beef for stew is +26%.
Chicken breast is +23%.
If my assertion of qualideflation is also correct, then these already eye-popping numbers take on new meaning, as it would be a new form of shrinkflation. Costco raised the price of its Chicken Bake 33% (to $3.99) in 2022, while maintaining the original 1984 "forever price" of $1.50 on a hot dog w/ soda.
Shrinkflation is objective and quantifiable. Moneywatch quoted a Lending Tree analysis that found Shrinkflation has affected one-third of grocery items (rank-ordered by magnitude):
Household paper products. Out of 20 products it tracked from prior to the pandemic until today, about 60% had reduced their sheet count.
Breakfast foods. 44% of the items they tracked were now sold in smaller portions (e.g., family-sized Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes, has slimmed from 24 ounces to 21.7 ounces).
Candy. 38% of items are now sold in smaller amounts (e.g., party-size Reese's miniatures (35.6 ounces now versus 40 ounces in 2020).
Greedflation is neither objective nor quantifiable, but a valiant attempt to divert consumers’ attention from the real driver of inflation, which economist Milton Friedman showed is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” When the government prints money faster than the increase in supply of goods. A perfect description of what we’ve witnessed in the past few years. Unless, of course, you believe that companies decided to all at once get greedy again for the first time in 40 years, the last time we saw double-digit inflation.
Research comes in quantitative and qualitative flavors. And while as a management consultant I pride myself in being able to quantify the unquantifiable, I’m not entirely certain how to do so here. Unlike product prices and sizes that can be easily compared over time to calculate inflation or shrinkflation, how would one quantify qualideflation? Well, for starters, I rejected 5 pieces of a chicken bake. If it takes ~20 bites to consume it, then 25% of the meal was unsatisfactory. But first I need to poke holes in my own hypothesis and invite you to do the same.
There’s subjectivity involved. What I find an acceptable bite of meat will differ from others. One person’s trash is another’s treasure.
It’s my perception that this phenomenon has grown dramatically in recent years, but I haven’t kept a log. People are naturally more inclined to focus more on something that’s been brought to their attention, like when you buy a new car and then start to notice more of that model on the roads.
My sample size is low (n=1), which is where you come in.
Have you noticed qualideflation, whether in meat or other products? If so, please describe what you've experienced.
Photo Credit: Wallpapers.com
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